The 2018/19 awards season has been an unpredictable ride, to say the least. It’s three days until awards season closeout and we have absolutely no clarity on what film will win Best Picture. To put it in perspective, almost all major “Best Picture” awards have all gone to different films: DGA: Roma, PGA: Green Book, SAG: Black Panther, WGA: Eighth Grade/Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Golden Globes: Bohemian Rhapsody, BAFTA: Roma
I’m now in my third year of attempting to watch every single film, and I still haven’t been able to accomplish just that. This year, I was unable to see 2 of 37 nominated feature films (Never Look Away and Capernaum), and 2 of 15 short films (Marguerite and Mother). These were simply unavailable and un-find-able.
If you need a rundown of this year’s nominees, you can check them out here: https://www.thewrap.com/oscar-nominations-2019-the-complete-list/
Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Should Win: Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Who Will Win: Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
While I consider BlacKkKlansman a dark horse for Best Picture, and Spike Lee a (very dark) horse for Best Director, I can’t realistically see it getting any wins come Oscars night outside of Adapted Screenplay.
Best Original Screenplay
Who Should Win: Deborah Davis & Tony McNamara, The Favourite or Paul Schrader, First Reformed
Who Will Win: Deborah Davis & Tony McNamara, The Favourite
Snubs: Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade; Rafael Casal & Daveed Diggs, Blindspotting
Given that this is First Reformed‘s only nomination, and that Hollywood screenwriting legend Paul Schrader still doesn’t have an Oscar to call his own, First Reformed could pull off a semi-upset. Don’t get me wrong, Schrader’s script is overly deserving of the award. But the film is relatively unknown and highly under-recognized, making its’ win an upset. But, it’s The Favourite‘s biting wit and one-liners that made it 2018’s gem, and it will certainly be rewarded for it.
Best Film Editing
Who Should Win: Not Bohemian Rhapsody
Who Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Snubs: Suspiria
Bohemian Rhapsody is an editing nightmare to watch. But Academy voters will acknowledge the work that editor John Ottman had to go through just to salvage a disaster of a shoot, from which original director (and known pedophile) Bryan S*nger left halfway through
Best Original Score
Who Should Win: Nicholas Britell, If Beale Street Could Talk
Who Will Win: Terence Blanchard, BlacKkKlansman
Snubs: You Were Never Really Here, First Man, Hereditary
I’m not really sure why I’m choosing Terence Blanchard’s BlacKkKlansman score to win, but I am. I *am* sure that Nicholas Britell’s score for Beale Street should be named winner, though. It brings to life a 70s era NYC and is perfectly balances the mood of love portrayed in the film. I listen to it regularly and would love to see some Beale Street love. Lots of snubs here, but First Man‘s score from La La Land winner Justin Hurwitz is the biggest omission.
Best Original Song
Who Should Win: Shallow, A Star Is Born
Who Will Win: Shallow, A Star Is Born
Maybe the only category I think is a sure fire bet. The performance of “Shallow” is the highlight and, for me, where A Star Is Born truly shines. “Shallow” not winning Best Original Song would be by far the biggest upset of the night.
Best Visual Effects
Who Should Win: Christopher Robin
Who Will Win: First Man
Snubs: Annihilation
First Man will win this, because it’s seen as the most “respectable” films of the five nominees, and because it may not win anything else (other possibilities include the Sound categories). Personally, I think the Christopher Robin effects were fantastic. The film couldn’t exist without its’ visual effects, and Christopher Robin‘s versions of Pooh, Piglet, Tigger and the gang are what give the film its’ charm. 
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Who Should Win: Vice
Who Will Win: Vice
Snubs: Suspiria
No one saw Border and honestly, no one saw Mary Queen of Scots either. Vice saw a makeup & hair team transform possible-Best Actor winner Christian Bale in Dick Cheney, which is quite a feat. Because Vice is competing in major categories (and because of the makeup/hair work of course), it will easily take this award home.
My *major* snub is for Suspiria, who tranformed Tilda Swinton into an unrecognizable 82-year old man. The role was even credited to a fake actor, Lutz Ebersdorf.
(Yes, that’s Tilda Swinton)
Best Costume Design
Who Should Win: The Favourite or Black Panther
Who Will Win: The Favourite
Snubs: Crazy Rich Asians
This should probably go to Black Panther. I mean, if you watched the film, you just know. Showstopping. But this almost always goes to a period piece, so The Favourite is my pick. Also: Rachel Weisz’s shooting suit.
Best Production Design
Who Should Win: The Favourite
Who Will Win: The Favourite
Snubs: Suspiria, Crazy Rich Asians
Much like Costume Design, Production Design usually goes to a period piece. But, the way that The Favourite is shot, the film really wouldn’t be much without the unbelievable production and set design employed in the film. The lavish rooms that provide the setting for the dark comedy make the performances and script even more cutting.
Best Sound Editing
Who Should Win: First Man
Who Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody
This usually goes to a film revolving around music, or a war epic. Since A Star Is Born is only nominated for 1 of the 2 Sound categories, voters will likely see Bohemian Rhapsody is in both categories, and is a music-based film, and quickly check both boxes.
Best Sound Mixing
Who Should Win: A Quiet Place
Who Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Was there a film this year (or in recent memory, for that matter) more reliant on sound than A Quiet Place? The film’s only nomination is worthy, but voters will lump the Sound categories together, thus leading to another Bohemian Rhapsody win.
Best Animated Short Film
Who Should Win: Bao
Who Will Win: Bao
All charming in their own ways, and all animated in wildly different formats, I think Bao (which played before Incredibles 2) has a relatively easy path to win. 
Best Live Action Short Film
Who Should Win: Fauve
Who Will Win: Skin
Unfortunately, I was unable to see two of these nominees: Marguerite and Mother. Personally, I liked Fauve best of the ones I saw. It was very short, to the point, and impactful. But the obvious racial commentary in the striking Skin will take this one home.
Best Documentary Short Film
Who Should Win: Period. End of Sentence.
Who Will Win: Period. End of Sentence.
All of the Documentary Shorts deal with relatively dark subject matters, but Period. End of Sentence. takes a positive look at the menstruation crisis in India. While it doesn’t sound like a ‘happy’ topic, the 25-minute film looks at feminist activists who work in rural India to produce low cost sanitary napkins/pads. Compared to the sheer darkness of both the Documentary Shorts and the Live Action shorts, I think this lighter doc will get the win here.
Best Documentary Feature
Who Should Win: Minding the Gap
Who Will Win: Free Solo
Snubs: Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
Free Solo is a stunning feat of filmmaking (and feat of humankind). But Minding the Gap feels the most personal and most unique of the bunch. Because the filmmaker is also one of the film’s subjects, it makes you feel like part of the friend group that the film follows. The craziest snub of the season, I think, is in this category. Mister Rogers documentary Won’t You Be My Neighbor? was left out. I think a lot of people though this was a shoe-in, not only for a nomination, but I thought even a win.
Best Animated Feature
Who Should Win: Spiderman: Into the Spider-Verse
Who Will Win: Spiderman: Into the Spider-Verse
The Wes Anderson diehard within me wants to say that Isle of Dogs deserves this one, and I think it does deserve this one. But Into the Spider-Verse just deserves it more. Into the Spider-Verse is a unique, heartfelt, and original take on one of our most beloved superheroes.
Best Cinematography
Who Should Win: Cold War or Roma
Who Will Win: Roma
Snubs: First Reformed, Suspiria, Burning
Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to see one of the nominee for one of my favorite categories, in Never Look Away. But, I think I can safely make my picks, given the 0 traction I’ve seen for Never Look Away. I’m sure it’s a lovely film, and I look forward to watching it, but I have to believe that it’s unavailability drastically hurt its’ Oscars chances. Anyways – Cold War may be the most beautiful (visually) film I saw all year. But I also felt that way about Roma, so I’m more than happy to see Alfonso Cuarón be the first ever director to win the cinematography award for shooting his own film.
Best Foreign Language Film
Who Should Win: Shoplifters or Cold War
Who Will Win: Roma
Since Roma has a very high chance of winning Best Picture, I think that Foreign Language Film should go to a non-Roma film, but hey. It will likely take home both, but I’d like to see some love for Palm D’Or winner Shoplifters, a touchingly human tale from Hirokazu Kore-eda.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Who Should Win: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Snubs: Steve Yeun, Burning; Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite; Nat Wolff, Hereditary; Jesse Plemons, Game Night
Yes, Mahershala Ali is great in Green Book. But he is also not a *supporting* character. Regardless, Richard E. Grant gives one of my favorite performances of the year in Can You Ever Forgive Me? as Lee Israel kiniving friend and drinking buddy turned partner in crime. He is so overly pleasant in the role, that you can’t help leaving the film wanting to spend more time with him.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Who Should Win: Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Who Will Win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Snubs: Elizabeth Debicki, Widows; Tilda Swinton, Suspiria; Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace; Claire Foy, First Man
Regina King is perfectly lovely in Beale Street. I love the way she balances support and concern with love in the film, and she is a certified scene stealer at some points during the film. But….Rachel Weisz. Both the dramatic and comedic turns that Weisz takes in The Favourite are utterly breathtaking. She absolutely devours the film’s script, and bounces off of costars Olivia Colman and Emma Stone with such ease, you feel as though if you met her on the street she would be Lady Sarah. In my favorite female performance on the year, bar Olivia Colman, Rachel Weisz should be this year’s Supporting Actress.
Best Director
Who Should Win: All of them. Except Adam McKay. Not him.
Who Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Snubs: Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born; Debra Granik, Leave No Trace; Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?; Steve McQueen, Widows; Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade
A nearly stacked category, every major directing award so far this year has gone to Alfonso Cuarón. And for good reason. Roma is a stunning feat of filmmaking that Cuarón practically did everything for. But Lanthimos’s turn in The Favourite is a stunning work, Spike Lee’s turn in BlacKkKlansman could make him the first ever African-American winner in the category, and Pawel Pawlikowski’s turn in Cold War is heartwrenching.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Who Should Win: Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Who Will Win: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Snubs: Ethan Hawke, First Reformed; John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman; Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun; Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here
Yes, Bradley Cooper was snubbed for a ‘Best Director’ nomination. But I honestly do not think he is getting enough credit for his performance in A Star Is Born. I left the film finding his performance a standout, which is saying something next to Lady Gaga’s shattering performance beside him. Christian Bale is a dark horse here, and could spoil Rami Malek taking home the prize. Malek was sufficient as Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody, but it was all too cartoony for me. And he didn’t sing. (See me on the lookout for 2019’s Rocketman, the Elton John biopic starring Taron Egerton, who sings in the film). Also, let it be known that I’m extremely over biopic performances sweeping awards season.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Who Should Win: Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Who Will Win: Glenn Close, The Wife
Snubs: Toni Colette, Hereditary; Joanna Kulig, Cold War; Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade; Viola Davis, Widows
Listen – I know that Olivia Colman isn’t going win. But I can still dream. My second choice would be Lady Gaga’s breakout performance in A Star Is Born. And while Gaga certainly had the most talked about performance, Close’s turn in The Wife represents the understated performance that the Academy would love to give the veteran actress her first Oscar for.
Best Picture
Who Should Win: The Favourite or Roma
Who Will Win: I have no idea.
Snubs: First Reformed, Suspiria, Widows, Mission Impossible: Fallout, Cold War
To me, this is the most wide open category this year, which is absolutely nuts. I am leaning towards believing that Roma will win, but I also have a bad feeling that Green Book will come out on top. Alas, what can one do.
See you next year.
maybemily 